Tireless Tracker

Analyzing Your Own Cube Drafts

October 15th, 2019 — Jett Crowdis
Analyzing Your Own Cube Drafts
Problem
Data
Confounders
Analysis
Archetype and Subarchetype Breakdown
Archetype
Decks
Game Record
Win Rate
Aggro
102
445-328
0.58 ± 0.03
Midrange
169
656-658
0.50 ± 0.03
Control
135
490-532
0.48 ± 0.03
Ramp
63
300-214
0.58 ± 0.04
Combo
31
122-116
0.51 ± 0.06
Reanimator
25
74-97
0.43 ± 0.07
± 95% confidence interval calculated via bootstrap.
Archetype
Most Common Cards
Aggro
Strip Mine, Sulfuric Vortex, Porcelain Legionnaire
Midrange
Polluted Delta, Recurring Nightmare, Demonic Tutor
Control
Ponder, Coldsteel Heart, Azorius Signet
Ramp
Birds of Paradise, Craterhoof Behemoth, Gaea's Cradle
Combo
Sneak Attack, Emrakul, the Aeon's Torn, Oath of Druids
Reanimator
Entomb, Reanimate, Griselbrand
Most common cards by archetype
Smokestack
Life from the Loam
Sun Titan
Birthing Pod
Land Tax
The strength of these cards depends on your playgroup preferences too! Ask yourself what your playgroup enjoys to draft and if these cards fit the speed of your Cube.
Individual Card Win Rates
Rank
(Out of 272)
Card
Games
Win Rate
1
Fireblast
192
0.646
2
Hellrider
172
0.628
6
Jackal Pup
207
0.614
10
Carnage Tyrant
158
0.608
11
Joraga Treespeaker
298
0.607
159
Mind Twist
342
0.500
188
Mana Drain
310
0.484
260
Vampiric Tutor
282
0.433
270
Toxic Deluge
268
0.398
Individual card win-rates.
Mind Twist
Mana Drain
Vampiric Tutor
Toxic Deluge
Not good enough for cube?
Rank
(Out of 272)
Card
Games
Normalized Win %
1
Upheaval
211
1.17
2
Balance
183
1.16
3
Reanimate
211
1.16
8
Fireblast
192
1.13
35
Joraga Treespeaker
298
1.08
93
Mana Drain
310
1.03
104
Mind Twist
342
1.02
250
Vampiric Tutor
282
0.92
267
Toxic Deluge
268
0.87
Normalized individual card win-rates
Number of
Tournaments
Average # of
Games/Card
Average Spike-in Rank
(out of 450)
% of Spike-in
in Top 100
0
0
225
22%
100
300
124
43%
500
1,500
99
57%
1,000
3,000
83
66%
10,000
30,000
32
99%
10
100%
Individual Card Spike-in Simulation. 0 tournaments played refers to having no information (ie if each card were randomly assigned a rank). ∞ tournaments refers to having perfect information on the cards. These are our baselines of reference.
True vs. Simulated Rank
Color Analysis
Color
Deck %
Average Card %
White
38%
44%
Blue
60%
37%
Black
42%
40%
Red
40%
44%
Green
31%
56%
Color Analysis — Deck % refers to the percentage of decks that contain the color. Card % refers to what fraction of cards are that color in a deck that contains that color.
Sideboard Analysis
Rank
(Out of 272)
Card
Games
Main %
1
Llanowar Elves
288
1.00
1
Lightning Bolt
333
1.00
1
Ponder
211
1.00
1
Fractured Identity
288
1.00
1
Swords to Plowshares
286
1.00
267
Acidic Slime
170
0.44
268
Brimaz, King of Oreskos
172
0.43
271
Hellrider
172
0.41
272
Ravages of War
167
0.40
Sideboard statistics - Main % refers to the rate a card is main decked vs. sideboarded.
Conclusions
Resources

Lucky Paper Newsletter

Memory Jar — Donato Giancola